{
 "note": "Illustrative. Computed by admin/notes/2026-10-28__underwriting-abp/premium.py; no number here is fitted to loss data.",
 "formula": "Every number in INPUT is illustrative, chosen for the article, not fitted to loss data. The formula is the point:",
 "input": {
  "agent": "a support agent connected to the customer database (the Licence to Operate vault's agent:concierge, generalised)",
  "currency": "GBP, illustrative",
  "where_it_runs": {
   "certified": 0.8,
   "uncertified": 1.1
  },
  "rows": [
   {
    "id": "corruption",
    "risk": "Customer records corrupted or deleted",
    "capability": "crm:write",
    "limit": 20000,
    "base_rate": 0.8
   },
   {
    "id": "leakage",
    "risk": "Customer data leaked",
    "capability": "crm:export, mail:send",
    "limit": 50000,
    "base_rate": 0.85
   },
   {
    "id": "advice",
    "risk": "Wrong answer acted on by a customer",
    "capability": "llm:generate",
    "limit": 10000,
    "base_rate": 0.5
   },
   {
    "id": "host",
    "risk": "Commands run on the host",
    "capability": "shell:exec",
    "limit": null,
    "base_rate": null
   }
  ],
  "controls": [
   {
    "id": "no-write",
    "control": "crm:write removed from the grant",
    "enforced_by": "the grant",
    "rows": {
     "corruption": 0.1
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "cap-20",
    "control": "At most 20 customer records per action",
    "enforced_by": "a proxy in front of the CRM",
    "rows": {
     "leakage": 0.4,
     "corruption": 0.5
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "draft-only",
    "control": "Drafts only; a person sends",
    "enforced_by": "mail:send removed from the grant",
    "rows": {
     "leakage": 0.5
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "egress",
    "control": "Outbound network only to an allow list",
    "enforced_by": "the runtime's egress policy",
    "rows": {
     "leakage": 0.6
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "review",
    "control": "Answers with a refund or a legal point go to a person",
    "enforced_by": "a hook that holds the reply",
    "rows": {
     "advice": 0.5
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "prompt-line",
    "control": "\"Never export customer data\" in the system prompt",
    "enforced_by": null,
    "rows": {
     "leakage": 0.6
    }
   }
  ]
 },
 "scenarios": {
  "uncontrolled": {
   "controls_on": [],
   "where_it_runs": "uncertified",
   "rows": [
    {
     "id": "corruption",
     "risk": "Customer records corrupted or deleted",
     "limit": 20000,
     "rate": 0.88,
     "premium": 17600,
     "controls": []
    },
    {
     "id": "leakage",
     "risk": "Customer data leaked",
     "limit": 50000,
     "rate": 0.935,
     "premium": 46750,
     "controls": []
    },
    {
     "id": "advice",
     "risk": "Wrong answer acted on by a customer",
     "limit": 10000,
     "rate": 0.55,
     "premium": 5500,
     "controls": []
    },
    {
     "id": "host",
     "risk": "Commands run on the host",
     "status": "excluded: no limit named, so not covered"
    }
   ],
   "total_limit": 80000,
   "total_premium": 69850,
   "premium_as_share_of_limit": 0.873
  },
  "a line in the prompt": {
   "controls_on": [
    "prompt-line"
   ],
   "where_it_runs": "uncertified",
   "rows": [
    {
     "id": "corruption",
     "risk": "Customer records corrupted or deleted",
     "limit": 20000,
     "rate": 0.88,
     "premium": 17600,
     "controls": []
    },
    {
     "id": "leakage",
     "risk": "Customer data leaked",
     "limit": 50000,
     "rate": 0.935,
     "premium": 46750,
     "controls": [
      {
       "control": "prompt-line",
       "factor": 1.0,
       "why": "not enforced: no discount"
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "advice",
     "risk": "Wrong answer acted on by a customer",
     "limit": 10000,
     "rate": 0.55,
     "premium": 5500,
     "controls": []
    },
    {
     "id": "host",
     "risk": "Commands run on the host",
     "status": "excluded: no limit named, so not covered"
    }
   ],
   "total_limit": 80000,
   "total_premium": 69850,
   "premium_as_share_of_limit": 0.873
  },
  "enforced controls, certified runtime": {
   "controls_on": [
    "no-write",
    "cap-20",
    "draft-only",
    "egress",
    "review"
   ],
   "where_it_runs": "certified",
   "rows": [
    {
     "id": "corruption",
     "risk": "Customer records corrupted or deleted",
     "limit": 20000,
     "rate": 0.032,
     "premium": 640,
     "controls": [
      {
       "control": "no-write",
       "factor": 0.1
      },
      {
       "control": "cap-20",
       "factor": 0.5
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "leakage",
     "risk": "Customer data leaked",
     "limit": 50000,
     "rate": 0.0816,
     "premium": 4080,
     "controls": [
      {
       "control": "cap-20",
       "factor": 0.4
      },
      {
       "control": "draft-only",
       "factor": 0.5
      },
      {
       "control": "egress",
       "factor": 0.6
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "advice",
     "risk": "Wrong answer acted on by a customer",
     "limit": 10000,
     "rate": 0.2,
     "premium": 2000,
     "controls": [
      {
       "control": "review",
       "factor": 0.5
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "host",
     "risk": "Commands run on the host",
     "status": "excluded: no limit named, so not covered"
    }
   ],
   "total_limit": 80000,
   "total_premium": 6720,
   "premium_as_share_of_limit": 0.084
  }
 },
 "walk": [
  {
   "step": "Uncontrolled, uncertified runtime",
   "total_premium": 69850
  },
  {
   "step": "+ a line in the prompt (not enforced)",
   "total_premium": 69850
  },
  {
   "step": "Runs on a certified runtime",
   "total_premium": 50800
  },
  {
   "step": "+ crm:write removed from the grant",
   "total_premium": 39280
  },
  {
   "step": "+ drafts only, mail:send removed",
   "total_premium": 22280
  },
  {
   "step": "+ at most 20 records per action, by proxy",
   "total_premium": 11440
  },
  {
   "step": "+ outbound only to an allow list",
   "total_premium": 8720
  },
  {
   "step": "+ refunds and legal points held for a person",
   "total_premium": 6720
  }
 ]
}